News Summary
Pending home-sale cancellations have reached record highs in 2025, climbing to nearly 15% according to a Redfin analysis. This trend is attributed to shifting market dynamics favoring buyers, who are now more willing to back out of deals. Jacksonville, FL, recorded the highest cancellation rate, with over 21% of agreements deemed unsuccessful. Meanwhile, the market shows a growing gap between buyers and sellers, hinting at potential future declines in home prices and mortgage rates. Buyers gain leverage as high listing prices lead to negotiations and prolonged market times.
Dallas – Pending home-sale cancellations have surged to record highs in 2025, reaching nearly 15% according to a new analysis. The study, conducted by Redfin, examined Multiple Listing Service (MLS) pending-sales data across 44 major U.S. metropolitan areas. In June, the cancellation rate for pending home sales climbed to 14.9%, an increase from 13.9% during the same month in the previous year. This equates to over 57,000 canceled home-sale agreements nationwide in June, marking the highest June cancellation rate documented since 2017.
Experts attribute this trend to shifting market dynamics that favor buyers over sellers. As buyers gain leverage, many are opting to cancel deals after finding more appealing options or identifying costly defects in the properties they were considering. Additionally, some buyers are choosing to withdraw from agreements with the hope that home prices and mortgage rates will decline, although projections indicate that such declines are unlikely in the near future.
Among individual markets, Jacksonville, FL recorded the highest cancellation rate in June, with over one in five (21.4%) of home-purchase agreements falling apart. Las Vegas and Atlanta closely followed, with cancellation rates of 19.7% and 19.6%, respectively. The Sun Belt region has seen significant activity in this regard, with cities like San Antonio, Tampa, Orlando, Riverside (CA), Phoenix, Fort Worth (TX), and Miami also appearing among the top ten locations with high cancellation rates.
Conversely, some areas demonstrated notably low cancellation rates. For instance, Nassau County, NY had a cancellation rate of just 5.4%, followed closely by Montgomery County, PA at 6.8%, and Milwaukee at 8.2%. This stark contrast highlights the regional variances within the broader national home-sale landscape.
The ongoing trends suggest a clear shift toward a buyer’s market. With approximately 500,000 more home sellers than buyers as of April 2025, this discrepancy represents the largest gap since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In general, when sellers outnumber potential buyers, home prices tend to soften. As such, Redfin anticipates a nationwide home price decline of 1% year over year by the end of 2025. Mortgage rates are expected to stabilize around 6.8% during the same period.
Current data indicates that U.S. home listing prices have reached an all-time high, prompting sellers to be more willing to negotiate in order to prevent sales from falling through. This flexibility can lead to more attractive offers for buyers, underlining the competitive advantage they currently hold in the market.
Observers note that the high listing prices are resulting in prolonged market times for homes, thereby dissuading potential buyers from making purchases. With this evolving landscape, it becomes essential for both buyers and sellers to remain informed about market conditions, as shifts like these can significantly influence strategies in real estate transactions.
The cancellation rates and market dynamics described in this report are part of an overarching trend in the U.S. housing industry as it continues to respond to economic shifts and buyer sentiment. With the information presented here, prospective buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals can better navigate their decisions in today’s fluctuating market.
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Additional Resources
- News4Jax: Northeast Florida Housing Market Shifts
- Realtor.com: Jacksonville FL Market Report
- Florida Times-Union: Jacksonville Home Sale Prices
- Norada Real Estate: Jacksonville Real Estate Market
- Ramsey Solutions: Florida Housing Market
- Wikipedia: Housing Market
- Google Search: Housing Market Trends
- Google Scholar: Real Estate Market Analysis
- Encyclopedia Britannica: Real Estate
- Google News: Real Estate Market 2025
Author: STAFF HERE TAMPA WRITER
The TAMPA STAFF WRITER represents the experienced team at HERETampa.com, your go-to source for actionable local news and information in Tampa, Hillsborough County, and beyond. Specializing in "news you can use," we cover essential topics like product reviews for personal and business needs, local business directories, politics, real estate trends, neighborhood insights, and state news affecting the area—with deep expertise drawn from years of dedicated reporting and strong community input, including local press releases and business updates. We deliver top reporting on high-value events such as Gasparilla Pirate Festival, Florida State Fair, and Tampa Riverfest. Our coverage extends to key organizations like the Tampa Bay Chamber of Commerce and United Way Suncoast, plus leading businesses in healthcare, finance, and technology that power the local economy such as BayCare Health System, Grow Financial Federal Credit Union, and KnowBe4. As part of the broader HERE network, including HEREJacksonville.com, HEREOrlando.com, HERESTPetersburg.com, and HERETallahassee.com, we provide comprehensive, credible insights into Florida's dynamic landscape.
